Senin, 21 Mei 2012
Tips Reading Direction Gold Price Movements
Lessons can we learn from fluctuations in commodities this week Golden sharp rebound from the lows will provide great benefits in the future, which is associated with the news and why it can affect the market.
Several news articles in the financial media can actually be used by readers to gather the facts and other forms of opinion which is necessary if readers want to deal with the underlying gold by the information available.
"Obviously the first step in conducting such trade is the way to familiarize yourself with a look at the financial press to know what happened exactly in the market," Monex Senior Researcher and Analyst Investindo Futures, Albertus Christian K, in his research, today.
The next step is to decide which news will have a significant impact to the gold market and certainly influential in the decision-making transactions that intelligence / not based on feeling alone.
Regular professional traders share "news" or "news" into two categories, namely information and opinion.
Each category has an impact to the market at any given time - for example, the FOMC minutes for further monetary easing (Thursday, May 17) is the "information" as interviews with former staff of the Fed's monetary affairs division, Roberto It is the "opinion". Let us analyze the form of news / news even further to get an idea of why it is so important that in turn triggers the Gold rebounds from 4-month lows.
The first step is to recognize the news related to the Fed's monetary easing or provision of stimulus (QE3), which is the focus of market participants thought the main factor of strengthening / weakening U.S. dollar and appreciation as well as to aspects of Gold vs. the paper money.
The next step is to decide whether the news is really "new". Meeting of the members of the U.S. central bank board (FOMC), which set the direction of U.S. interest rate policy, and still has room to indicate the monetary easing is very important. Why? because everyone already knows that the issue of Greek bankruptcy due to not getting a bailout and had to get out of the member EU is bad for gold and positive for the dollar.
Naturally, if there is a sharp weakening of Gold in the past week, due to the risk that this could not be taken lightly. The impact of the release of the Greek scenario of the single currency Euro is returned to the currency devaluation of the drachma drachmas and a new place at 50 percent, where it will cause harm to Germany and France about 155 billion euros, a figure which is fantastic for the central banks of Western countries .
The danger is more threatening it is a chain effect to the public and private debt in the peripheral countries of Europe and France worth 15 billion euros and if the EU banking assets which hold Greek bonds by 27 billion Euros. So the dollar rose sharply against gold, because the risk triggering risk aversion of investors to the dollar.
But news of the FOMC minutes is the first positive news for the Gold Dollar in relation to the factors. Making the news is "new news". Apart from that, the previous FOMC meeting in March, the Fed board members agreed that the determination of interest rates depends on U.S. economic data that in fact show an improvement, so the opportunity for monetary easing / increasingly shrinking supply of any stimulus. Though monetary easing factor is the locomotive for the Dollar and Gold.
The results of the FOMC minutes finally produced "new news" that reverses all the things that are the focus for this market. News like that would make the idea of market participants became more positive, when they think the Greek political crisis bad for gold and psychological change sentiment and give market participants confidence in the assets of Gold.
The next thing that shaped "opinion" is a former staff interview the Fed's monetary affairs division, namely Roberto Perli. The whole world has reacted to the story of the FOMC and the dollar.
Later in the interview directly with members of the Fed, said that the risk of bankruptcy would likely increase the chances of Greek monetary easing and the Fed's benchmark U.S. central bank to loosen monetary indicators such as the shift of economic growth or inflation to external risks that may impede recovery.
It ended and psychological negative sentiment earlier in the Gold, because the chances of monetary easing is a negative catalyst for the dollar.
The reader should be aware that we trade with probability. Smart investors will continue to try to find things that are important in the probability of certain events based on certain expectations and make trade decisions based on these conclusions.
FOMC made a statement. Does that sound positive to you - if it makes you feel confident with your position in the market.
Of course it affects. Your reaction is also likely to be the same as other people's reactions as an investor.
What you will not feel much different from other market players. If the reader is surprised by a particular story, then the probability is quite large if other people will also feel surprised. If the reader does not feel surprised, then its the same thing also other market participants will feel normal.
Gold in order to transact safely, investors also need to be wise when the market volatility that can sometimes be tricky, known as the "danger of crowd behavior", is meant to be a trend follower does a pretty good strategy but it should be observed also when the trend is already starting expired so we should not have to follow the trend of time, or we can simply analogy with the behavior of its bird flying duck, that is when everyone already knows that the bird is always flying ducks to the south when winter begins.
But when you see the bird suddenly changes its direction to fly instead to the north in the winter, then you get a "new news", which could potentially move the market.
Various mass media in the financial market updates are usually gathered from Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. that are present a lot of news has a negative impact for the Gold, but it's their job to provide as much information as possible.
But for investors, it is our job to decide which news is market-moving factors. If we can not decide, then it is better to observe it first, and save our money to trade gold at a later time.
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